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Projecting Felony Intakes to the Justice System

Texas State University-San Marcos, TX, USA, pm14{at}txstate.edu

Prison populations in this country continue to increase even during a period of decline in the crime rate. There is a need for a model that simulates how offenders are admitted, how they move in and out of the system, and how capable it is of answering "what if " type of questions. For example, what impact would it have on the prison system population if there was a policy that would result in an increase in the parole revocation rate for administrative violations? This article presents a methodology to forecast correctional admissions. Projected admissions are derived by separately projecting felony probation placements, direct court prison commitments, and felony probation and parole revocation to prison.

Key Words: prison intakes • projected admissions • projected revocations • direct court commitments

This version was published on December 1, 2009

The Prison Journal, Vol. 89, No. 4, 383-400 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/0032885509349558


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