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Modeling Factors Central to Recidivism

An Investigation of Sentence Management in the Scottish Prison Service

University at Buffalo, State University of New York

Robert Raeside

Napier University, Edinburgh, Scotland

This investigation explores the relationship of sentence management and recidivism. Data were manually gathered on a sample of more than 200 prisoners released from two facilities in Scotland. Key elements of sentence management are observed as significant in the prediction of reoffending, such as a prisoner's previous offense history and employability. However, other elements integral to the design of sentence management, such as psychometric and behavioral test results, are not. In addition, survival analysis shows that release from an open prison environment is associated with reduced reconviction rates, but only during the 1st year from release.

Key Words: recidivism • survival analysis • logistic regression • prisoner management • sentence management

This version was published on March 1, 2009

The Prison Journal, Vol. 89, No. 1, 99-118 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/0032885508330445


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