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The Prison Journal
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20/20 Hindsight: Effectiveness of Simulating the Impact of Federal Sentencing Legislation on the Future Prison Population

GERALD G. GAES

Federal Bureau of Prisons

ERIC S. SIMON

Federal Bureau of Prisons

WILLIAM M. RHODES

Abt Associates

This article describes the results of a sentencing legislation and policy simulation conducted to project the federal inmate population. The simulation model was developed in response to a congressional mandate that the United States Sentencing Commission evaluate the impact of its sentencing guidelines on the future federal prison population. In mid-1987 the model was used to project changes in the use of probation and prison length of stay. The model accurately projected the impact of dramatic changes in sentencing structure that increased the federal prison population by 52% in the 4 years since the end of calendar year 1987. The article also discusses the interrelationships between sentencing legislation, sentencing practices, changes in criminal justice resource allocations, prison population "caps," and the use of an impact model to inform the public policy debate surrounding the use of prison as a sanction.

The Prison Journal, Vol. 73, No. 1, 5-29 (1993)
DOI: 10.1177/0032855593073001002
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