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Projecting Felony Intakes to the Justice System

Texas State University–San Marcos, TX, USA

^* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: pm14{at}txstate.edu.

	Abstract

Prison populations in this country continue to increase even during a period of decline in the crime rate. There is a need for a model that simulates how offenders are admitted, how they move in and out of the system, and how capable it is of answering "what if" type of questions. For example, what impact would it have on the prison system population if there was a policy that would result in an increase in the parole revocation rate for administrative violations? This article presents a methodology to forecast correctional admissions. Projected admissions are derived by separately projecting felony probation placements, direct court prison commitments, and felony probation and parole revocation to prison.

First published on October 19, 2009, doi:10.1177/0032885509349558

The Prison Journal 2009;89:383.

A more recent version of this article appeared on December 1, 2009


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